The New Middle East

In the third week of the Security Studies Program, fellows will examine a Middle East transformed by Hamas’s October 7 attack and the regional firestorm it ignited. That single day set in motion a high-stakes confrontation pitting the United States and its allies against Iran and the network of proxies it has spent decades cultivating.

At the same time, a disturbing surge of antisemitism—stretching from European capitals to American campuses—has amplified the political reverberations of the conflict far beyond the region. These global reactions shape the battlefield no less than events on the ground, complicating U.S. decision-making and straining key alliances.

This seminar will trace how the post-October 7 landscape is redrawing the region’s geopolitical map: the uncertain future of the Abraham Accords; the strategic calculus of the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states; and the recalibration of regional heavyweights like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and a post-war Syria.

Ultimately, we will confront the defining strategic questions of this new Middle East: Who sets the regional agenda? Can the United States still build and sustain a durable coalition? And what will the balance of power look like when the dust settles?

Image: Middle East Map, Wallpaper Flare

Dr. Doran on America's Strikes in Iran

This course is part of our residential Security Studies Program. Fellows participate in morning seminars and meet national security leaders and experts over afternoon and evening sessions. Up to 16 fellows will be selected.

Faculty

Michael Doran

Michael Doran, an expert in U.S. policy toward the Middle East, radical Islam, and the Arab-Israeli conflict, is a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute. He has also held a number of senior U.S. government posts related to Middle East policy and strategic communication.

Preview the Syllabus by Week/Session

Session I: The Strategic Challenge

The Powers

Reading:

Vali Nasr, “The New Balance of Power in the Middle East: America, Iran, and the Emerging Arabian Axis,” Foreign Affairs, June 10, 2025

Discussion Questions:

Describe the current Middle Eastern order.
Name the top-tier, most influential players.
What qualities determine membership in the top tier?

Iran & Its Proxies

Reading:

Boaz Shapira, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, ALMA Center Special Report (2024)
Ben-Sasson Gordis, et al, Fracturing the Axis: Degrading and Disrupting Iran’s Proxy Network, Joint INSS-IPF Report, (2025)

Discussion Questions:

Which proxy is the most effective for Iran?
Which is the least effective?
Why don’t other countries wield proxies in the same way?

Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program

Reading:

David E. Sanger, et al, “What We Know About the Fate of Iran’s Nuclear Program After Israeli and U.S. Strikes,” The New York Times, June 26, 2025

Discussion Questions:

Is it possible to eradicate Iran’s nuclear weapons program through air strikes?

Overmatch

Reading:

Michael Doran & Can Kasapoğlu, “Overmatch,” Tablet, November 2, 2022

Discussion Questions:

Why haven’t Israel and the West neutralized Iran’s “overmatch”?
What would it take to neutralize it?

The American Debate: The Obama Vision versus the Trump Vision

Reading:

Michael Doran & Tony Badran, “The Realignment,” Tablet, May 10, 2021

Discussion Questions:

If you had to boil down the difference between Obama and Trump paradigms to just one factor, what might it be?

Session II: From October 7, 2023 to June 13, 2025

The Course of the War

Reading:

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Israel-Hamas War One Year On, October 2024

The Persistence of the Hamas Challenge

Reading:

Jim Zanotti & Jeremy M. Sharp, “Israel and Hamas Conflict In Brief” (CRS Report No. R47828), Congressional Research Service, 2024

Discussion Questions:

Why has Hamas proven so resilient?
What trade-offs does Israel face in trying to eliminate Hamas?

The Persistence of the Hezbollah Challenge

Reading:

Council on Foreign Relations, “What Is Hezbollah?” Updated April 17, 2026

Discussion Questions:

Why has Hezbollah proven so resilient?
Can Israel possibly eliminate Hezbollah?

Session III: America Enters the War

Antisemitism & “Restraint-ism” Rising

Reading:

Michael Doran, “The King’s Foils,” Tablet, April 7, 2025
Michael Doran, “The ‘Jews’ Are a Proxy for a Far Bigger Political Fight,” The Free Press, October 1, 2025

Discussion Questions:

Why did October 7 generate waves of antisemitism?

The War Against the Houthis

Reading:

April Longley Alley, “How the Houthis Outlasted America,” Foreign Affairs, May 9, 2025

Discussion Questions:

What are the key lessons of the Houthi campaign, both for future operations in Yemen and more broadly?

The 12-Day War

Reading:

Britannica, “12-Day War,” 2025
Richard Nephew, “Did the Attacks on Iran Succeed?” Foreign Affairs, June 26, 2025
Raphael S. Cohen, “Iran and the Logic of Limited Wars,” RAND Corporation, July 17, 2025

The 2026 Iran War

Reading:

Britannica, “2026 Iran War,” 2026
Michael Doran, “Seven Myths About the Iran War,” Tablet, April 13, 2026

Discussion Questions:

What were the main strategic achievements and limitations of the two Iran wars?
Have the U.S.–Israeli campaigns fundamentally altered Iran’s nuclear timeline and regional influence?

Session IV: The Global Context

China: Two Views

Reading:

Zineb Riboua, “The Iran Strike Is All About China,” The Free Press, March 1, 2026
Ryan Hass, et al., “Beijing’s Approach to the Conflict in Iran and Its Implications for China,” Brookings Institution, May 5, 2026

Russia/Ukraine: Two Views

Reading:

Max Boot, “The Iran Conflict Is Becoming a Russia–Ukraine Proxy War,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 30, 2026
Jana Kobzova, “From Good to Not Good: The Impact of the War in Iran on Russia,” European Council on Foreign Relations, April 14, 2026

Discussion Questions:

Was China helped or hurt by the war?
Was Russia helped or hurt?

Turkey

Reading:

Asli Aydıntaşbaş, “The Iran War’s Threat to Turkey,” Foreign Affairs, April 27, 2026

Saudi Arabia versus the UAE

Reading:

Vivian Nereim, et al., “What to Know About the Growing Saudi Arabia–U.A.E. Rift,” The New York Times, May 5, 2026

Discussion Questions:

Is the rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh a major strategic concern for the United States? A secondary concern? A tertiary one?

Session V: The Known Unknowns

Iran’s Ethnic Politics

Reading:

Michael Doran, “A Nightmare Scenario for Iran,” The Washington Post, January 23, 2026

Discussion Questions:

How significant are Iran’s ethnic divisions, and under what conditions might they become explosive?
What risks does ethnic fragmentation pose for a post-regime scenario in Iran?
What are the possible post-regime scenarios?

Exercise: Breaking the Hormuz Deadlock: A Mock NSC Debate

Description:

During the second hour of the final day, we will conduct a mock National Security Council meeting. Details to come.

Exercise Postmortem

Final Thoughts

Alumni Spotlight

Elliot Kaufman

Elliot Kaufman, who grew up in Toronto, realized he wanted a career in ideas after spending a summer with the Political Studies Program. He works for The Wall Street Journal as an Editorial Board Member.

“Hertog opened my mind to what was possible; I saw that ideas aren’t just something you study at university. They can launch and sustain careers.”

Elliot Kaufman

Current Position:

Letters Editor, The Wall Street Journal
Past:

Robert L. Bartley Fellow, The Wall Street Journal; National Review
Education:

Stanford University

How did you first hear about the Hertog Foundation? Why did you decide to apply?

I think I came across it on the email list for The Stanford Review. The Hertog program almost sounded too good to be true. I couldn’t believe that there were opportunities out there like that—let alone that they would even pay you to take them up.

At the time I was halfway through my freshman year at Stanford, and I just thought that the stuff I was learning was interesting and the professors were okay, but it wasn’t what I was expecting: the discoveries that would make me rethink what I had come in with, really challenge myself. Hertog sounded like exactly what I was missing, even at a school like Stanford.

Talk a little bit about your career path. How does Hertog fit in to your professional goals?

Looking back on it, it doesn’t seem like that much of a surprise that I’m in journalism and working for The Wall Street Journal. I started reading the newspaper very young.

I arrived at Hertog with some vague notion that I would end up working in “business.” I walked into my apartment that summer, and the three other guys living with me—two were entering Ph.D. programs in political philosophy and the other one, the slacker of the bunch I guess, was entering Columbia Law School. They put me—18 years old, the youngest student in the entire program – with the cohort’s three oldest students.

It was such a gift. Hertog opened my mind to what was possible; I saw that ideas aren’t just something you study at university. They can launch and sustain careers. And at the end of summer my roommates joined together to buy me a book, The Closing of the American Mind by Allan Bloom. A summer of Hertog and then reading that book—together the experience changed my life. I realized I was missing something, and it helped me to redirect.

What sticks out in your memory about your educational experience with Hertog Programs?

I had some amazing professors who got me to ask questions I hadn’t even considered, that I didn’t know anyone was considering. It had a huge impact on me. Among those I would name Robert Bartlett on Aristotle and Darren Staloff on Lincoln.

Reading “What is Political Philosophy?” by Leo Strauss on the first night and then discussing it with my roommates—that’s the memory that stands out. It’s the intellectual excitement: Keeping the education going over dinner with my roommates, then coming back to the room and still continuing the conversation, and really living with the questions and readings.

I keep in touch with my roommates and several other people in the program, and they’re all over the place – in DC especially, New York City and elsewhere. It’s an amazing network of people.

Overall, what is your impression of Hertog Programs?

You get sharp kids who challenge each to think deeper and consider new arguments together. You have teachers who bring the issues alive by treating them as fundamental, as human questions. I didn’t have that elsewhere, and I was grateful to be able to experience in the summer what my university should have given me.

Do you think Hertog Programs are beneficial for young people interested in journalism?

The world of reading great books and the world of opinion journalism are not entirely shut off from each other. I find that the best opinion journalists, even if they don’t advertise how many books they’ve read in every single column, it helps inform their writing and can give them an extra edge.

On a more practical note, when I needed to find a job, one of the first people I emailed and spoke to was [Hertog director] Cheryl Miller, who was helpful in introducing me to people all over New York and D.C., and my phone call with her probably led to five other phone calls.

Another thing is meeting people your age, many of whom are going on to similar activities, like you are going out into the world together. Especially for people like me who are not from New York or DC and are moving there. Just having that network, that can be very helpful, too.

Where do you see yourself in 10 years? In a similar job, or embarking on something different?

I think something similar—really I hope I can stay at the WSJ. Certainly, something that allows me to edit and write. One of the great things is that there are so many conservative magazines in New York and DC that need people to write and edit and to understand that kind of intellectual landscape and do well in it.

Security Studies 2026