Chinese Grand Strategy
Explore the implications of China’s global rise for U.S. primacy and the liberal international order.
President Richard Nixon entered office with a grand plan to reshuffle the geopolitical deck. China had top billing in his designs, and an opening to Beijing was within reach.
Nixon’s strategic opening to Beijing in 1972 marked a momentous change in U.S. foreign policy. It realigned China from a Communist revolutionary adversary to a “normal” authoritarian partner in the Cold War. Today, many in the U.S. believe that strategic bet has failed. China has become much richer, but it has not become freer. If anything, its increased wealth has equipped the Chinese Communist party to devote even more resources to maintaining its authoritarian rule and monopoly on power.
This Weekend Seminar, led by Asia expert Dan Blumenthal, will explore the historic circumstances and strategic conditions that led to rapprochement between the U.S. and China. Did we get China wrong in 1972? Is it fair to judge a policy from the height of the Cold War by today’s circumstances? And in light of that question, how should we think about the U.S.-China relationship today?
Images courtesy National Archives via WikiCommons | Nixon White House via WikiCommons
Daniel Blumenthal on the rise of China
This seminar will take place in Washington, DC. Travel, housing, meals, and course materials are provided by the Hertog Foundation.
Faculty
Daniel Blumenthal
Dan Blumenthal is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on East Asian security issues and Sino-American relations. Mr. Blumenthal has served in and advised the US government on China issues for more than a decade.
Dan Blumenthal
Dan Blumenthal is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on East Asian security issues and Sino-American relations. Mr. Blumenthal has served in and advised the US government on China issues for more than a decade.
Before joining AEI, Mr. Blumenthal served as senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the US Department of Defense. He served as a commissioner on the congressionally mandated US-China Economic and Security Review Commission from 2006 to 2012, and he was vice chairman of the commission in 2007. He also served on the Academic Advisory Board of the congressional US-China Working Group.
Mr. Blumenthal is the author of “The China Nightmare: The Grand Ambitions of a Decaying State” (AEI Press, November 2020) and coauthor of “An Awkward Embrace: The United States and China in the 21st Century” (AEI Press, November 2012).
He has testified before Congress and has been published in The Atlantic, Commentary, Foreign Policy, The Hill, Los Angeles Times, The National Interest, National Review, The New York Post, The New York Times, Newsweek, RealClearWorld, and The Wall Street Journal, among other outlets. His broadcast appearances include C-SPAN, Yahoo News, Bloomberg Radio, and many top-rated talk radio programs.
Mr. Blumenthal has a J.D. from Duke Law School, an M.A. from the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, and a B.A. from Washington University in St. Louis. He also attended Capital Normal University in Beijing, China, where he focused on Chinese language studies.
Download the Full Syllabus
Preview the Syllabus by Week/Session
Friday
The Strategic Context: The Geopolitical Context of the Nixon Presidency | Mao’s China in the Late 1960s
READINGS:
- Chen Jian, Introduction, Ch. 8, Mao’s China and the Cold War (2001)
- Margaret MacMillan, Ch. 9, Nixon and Mao: The Week that Changed the World (2007)
- Richard Nixon, “Asia After Viet Nam,” Foreign Affairs, October 1967
- Evan Thomas, Ch. 12, Being Nixon: A Man Divided (2015)
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:
- What was the geopolitical situation in the late 1960s? In the global Cold War, who had the strategic upper hand—the US or the Soviet Union?
- What was President Nixon’s initial approach to China upon taking office in January 1969? What was the Soviet approach? How did each relate its China strategy to its Cold War strategy?
- Describe China’s strategic situation during this period. How did Mao understand the Cold War and China’s role in the conflict? Why did China enter the Vietnam War, and how did the war alter the strategic environment?
- How did domestic political concerns shape each country’s strategy or decision-making? What role did ideology play?
Group Dinner
Saturday
Group Breakfast
US and Chinese Goals and Objectives During a Major Geopolitical Shift
READINGS:
- Chen Jian, Ch. 9, Mao’s China and the Cold War (2001)
- Margaret MacMillan, Ch. 16, Nixon and Mao: The Week that Changed the World (2007)
- Henry Kissinger, Memorandum for the President, November 11, 1972, pp.2-5
- Henry Kissinger, Memorandum for the President’s Files, July 18, 1971
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:
- With what objectives did the US and China enter into negotiations — especially as they concerned Vietnam (Indochina), Taiwan, the Soviet Union, Korea, South Asia, and normalizing relations? What were the underlying strategic assumptions of each side?
Group Lunch
The Opening: The High Diplomacy of Rapprochement
READINGS:
- Margaret MacMillan, Chs. 5, 18-19, Nixon and Mao: The Week that Changed the World (2007)
- Chou En-lai and President Henry Kissinger, Memorandum of Conversation, October 21, 1972
- Joint Statement Following Discussions with Leaders of the People’s Republic of China, February 27, 1972
- Nixon in China: The Film, Part II (from 20:06 onward)
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:
- Why did Mao invite Nixon to China? What was his rationale in accepting? What was Nixon’s strategy going into the negotiations? What was Mao’s?
- How did the Soviet Union respond to Nixon’s visit? US allies, like Japan and Taiwan?
- What was the Shanghai Communiqué, and what did it achieve? How does it compare to the objectives of the key players at the beginning of US-China negotiations?
- Who emerged as the winners and losers post-negotiations? How do you judge the performance of the key decision-makers in Washington and Beijing?
Group Dinner
Sunday
Group Breakfast
The Road to 1979: Normalization and Quasi-Alliance
READINGS:
- Ezra Vogel, Ch. 9, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (2011)
- James C. Hsiung, “Reagan’s China Policy and the Sino-Soviet Détente,” Asian Affairs Vol 11 (2) 1984:1-11
- Dan Blumenthal, Introduction, Chs. 3, 8, The China Nightmare: The Grand Ambitions of a Decaying State (forthcoming)
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:
- How did the geopolitical situation change following US-China rapprochement? Did any country emerge with the strategic upper hand?
- Did Deng’s strategy represent a break with Mao? Why or why not?
- How did Nixon’s visit shape US policy toward China in the years to come? In what ways was “engagement” a success; in what ways, a failure?
- What different decisions might the US and China have made over the past 30 years that would have produced a better outcome in Sino-American relations today?
